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- Written by: John Burke questions AI regarding Copper Supply
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QUESTION:
Given the ‘dash’ to electrify to the UK and European governments - today (30th October 2025) we heard at the FT Energy Transition Seminar - from ABB (Per Erik Holsten); there are Copper supply side problems meaning that ABB transformers have a 5 year lead time! What impact on a practical level will this have?
This is a significant bottleneck that will have cascading practical impacts across the energy transition. Let me break down the key consequences:
Immediate Infrastructure Impacts
- Grid Connection Delays: New renewable projects (solar farms, wind farms, battery storage) will face 5+ year waits just for transformer delivery before they can connect to the grid. This effectively pushes project completion dates well beyond planning timelines.
- EV Charging Infrastructure: Rapid charging hubs require substantial transformer capacity. Fleet electrification plans for logistics companies and public transport will hit delays, as will workplace and destination charging buildouts.
- Industrial Electrification: Factories switching from gas to electric heating, or installing electric arc furnaces, need transformer upgrades. This 5-year wait directly slows manufacturing decarbonization.
Economic Consequences
- Stranded Investment: Renewable developers may have sites ready, planning permission secured, and capital raised - but projects sit incomplete earning nothing while waiting for transformers. This ties up capital and increases financing costs.
- Cost Inflation: Scarcity will drive transformer prices higher. Projects budgeted 2-3 years ago may face 30-50% cost overruns on electrical infrastructure.
- Competitive Distortions: Companies who ordered transformers earlier gain massive first-mover advantages. Late movers face years of competitive disadvantage.
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- Written by: J C Burke
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The Efficiency Alternative:
Why Decentralized Energy Systems Beat the Renewable Subsidy Race
A Pre-Summit Analysis for the FT Energy Transition Summit 2025 - 29th and 30th October 2025
By Sun Earth Energy Ltd
As the Financial Times Energy Transition Summit convenes this coming week, CEOs, policymakers, and—critically—US investors will gather to discuss the "path to net zero." They'll hear familiar themes: massive renewable deployment, gigawatt-scale solar farms, offshore wind expansion, and the billions in subsidies needed to make it all "competitive."
But what if that entire framework is thermodynamically backwards?
The Uncomfortable Truth About Current Policy
At this year's FT Hydrogen Summit, a senior DESNZ official made a remarkable admission: the UK government's strategy involves deliberately making natural gas expensive to make alternatives like hydrogen appear "competitive."
This isn't market economics. This is industrial policy disguised as environmental necessity.
The same mechanism drives renewable energy policy:
- Add £65/MWh carbon pricing to gas generation
- Apply windfall taxes to North Sea production
- Provide 25% capital grants for solar/wind
- Guarantee prices through Contracts for Difference
- Socialize grid connection and balancing costs
Then declare renewables "cheaper than fossil fuels."
The Thermodynamic Case No One Makes
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- Written by: J C Burke
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Ofgem Heat Networks Regulation: Protecting Consumers or Stifling Innovation?
An Analysis of the Fair Pricing Protection Guidance Consultation: The Promise and the Problem
Heat networks represent one of the most thermodynamically sensible solutions to reducing energy waste in the UK. By capturing waste heat from power generation, industrial processes, and data centres that would otherwise be discarded, they offer genuine efficiency gains regardless of carbon accounting metrics.
Yet Ofgem's latest consultation on heat networks regulation reveals a troubling misalignment between stated objectives and likely outcomes. While claiming to support market growth, the framework may actually entrench exactly the barriers preventing heat networks from reaching their full potential.
The Regulatory Paradox
The consultation framework attempts to balance three objectives:
- Protecting captive consumers
- Supporting sector investment
- Meeting net zero targets
But these goals pull in fundamentally different directions, and the draft guidance reveals which objective takes priority.
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- Written by: John Burke and AI assistance
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The catastrophic sub station fire in Hayes, London - which supplies Heathrow Airport has demontrated several issues.
The catastrophic substation fire in Hayes, London, on March 21, 2025, which disrupted power to Heathrow Airport and thousands of surrounding homes, has exposed critical vulnerabilities in the region’s energy infrastructure. This incident has grounded flights, affected over 1,300 scheduled operations, and highlighted systemic issues in power supply reliability, backup systems, and resilience planning. The key issues demonstrated by this event and additionally Combined Heat and Power (CHP) as a potential alternative, focusing on its relevance to this scenario.
Issues Demonstrated by the Hayes Substation Fire
- Single Point of Failure in Power Infrastructure
The fire at the North Hyde substation, which supplies Heathrow—one of the world’s busiest airports—revealed a significant dependency on a centralized power source. When the substation failed, it not only cut power to the airport but also impacted over 16,300 homes initially, with around 4,900 still without power by early Friday morning. The fact that a single incident could paralyze such a critical transport hub and a large residential area underscores the fragility of relying heavily on one substation without sufficient redundancy. - Inadequate Backup Systems
UK Energy Secretary Ed Miliband noted that the fire was so severe it damaged "the potential backup generation" for Heathrow, rendering contingency measures ineffective. This suggests that the existing backup systems—likely diesel generators or secondary grid connections—were either insufficiently robust or too closely tied to the primary substation’s infrastructure. The inability to quickly switch to an alternative power source prolonged the airport’s closure and disrupted global travel networks. - Logistical and Economic Fallout
The closure of Heathrow until midnight on March 21 has led to over 1,300 flight cancellations or diversions, stranding passengers and creating a "logistical nightmare" for airlines. The ripple effects extend globally, with flights from as far as Singapore, the US, and Australia diverted or canceled. Locally, the power outage disrupted businesses and households, amplifying the economic cost. This highlights the broader consequences of energy infrastructure failures in critical areas. - Lack of Resilience to Extreme Events
Despite upgrades to the North Hyde substation in 2021, which included new transformers and circuits to enhance reliability, the system still succumbed to a "catastrophic" fire. The cause remains under investigation, but the incident raises questions about whether current infrastructure is designed to withstand rare but severe events—whether accidental, environmental, or otherwise. Aging equipment could further exacerbate such risks. - Delayed Response and Recovery
Although the London Fire Brigade brought the blaze under control by 6:28 GMT, power restoration efforts by National Grid have been slow, with no clear timeline for full recovery. This reflects challenges in repairing complex electrical infrastructure under emergency conditions and the difficulty of rerouting power from alternative sources in a timely manner.
Combined Heat and Power (CHP) as an Alternative
Combined Heat and Power (CHP), also known as cogeneration, is a decentralized energy system that simultaneously generates electricity and useful heat from a single fuel source, typically natural gas, biomass, or biogas. Unlike traditional power plants that waste heat as a byproduct, CHP captures it for heating or cooling purposes, achieving efficiencies of up to 80-90% compared to 30-50% for conventional grid systems. Here’s how CHP could address the issues exposed by the Hayes fire, with emphasis on its potential role at Heathrow and beyond:
- Decentralized Power Generation
Installing CHP units at or near Heathrow could reduce reliance on a single external substation like North Hyde. By generating power on-site, the airport could maintain operations during grid failures, mitigating the single-point-of-failure risk. For instance, a CHP plant sized to meet Heathrow’s base load (estimated at tens of megawatts for such a large facility) could keep critical systems—runways, terminals, and air traffic control—running independently. - Enhanced Backup and Resilience
CHP systems can serve as a robust backup or primary power source, operating in "island mode" during outages. Unlike the compromised backup generators in this incident, a well-designed CHP system could be isolated from external grid failures and fueled independently (e.g., via gas pipelines or stored fuel). Pairing CHP with battery storage could further ensure uninterrupted power during transitions or fuel supply disruptions. - Energy Efficiency and Cost Savings
Heathrow’s extensive heating and cooling needs—terminals, hangars, and support facilities—make it an ideal candidate for CHP. The captured heat could replace less efficient boilers, reducing energy costs and carbon emissions. For example, a gas-fired CHP unit could supply electricity to the airport while piping hot water or steam to heat buildings, cutting reliance on grid electricity and standalone heating systems. - Reduced Grid Strain
By generating power locally, CHP could alleviate demand on the National Grid, particularly during peak times or emergencies. This would benefit surrounding areas like Hayes and Hounslow, where thousands of homes lost power. A network of smaller CHP installations across critical infrastructure and communities could distribute the load, preventing widespread outages when a substation fails. - Environmental Benefits
While the immediate focus post-fire is reliability, CHP offers a greener alternative to traditional grid power, especially if fueled by renewable biogas or paired with solar thermal systems. Heathrow, which handled 83.9 million passengers in 2024, has sustainability goals that CHP could support by lowering its carbon footprint compared to coal- or gas-heavy grid electricity.
Challenges of Implementing CHP in This Context
- Initial Investment: Retrofitting Heathrow with CHP requires significant upfront costs for equipment, installation, and integration. However, long-term savings and reliability gains could justify this, especially for a high-stakes facility.
- Space Constraints: Airports are space-intensive, and finding room for CHP units could be tricky, though modular systems exist that might fit within existing infrastructure.
- Fuel Dependency: Most CHP systems rely on natural gas, introducing a dependency on gas networks or storage. Diversifying fuel sources (e.g., biogas, oil, aviation fuels, or hydrogen(??)) could mitigate this.
- Regulatory and Planning Hurdles: Deploying CHP would need approval from local authorities, National Grid, and aviation regulators, potentially delaying implementation.
Conclusion
The Hayes substation fire has laid bare the risks of centralized power dependency, inadequate backups, and insufficient resilience in critical infrastructure like Heathrow Airport. CHP offers a compelling alternative by decentralizing power generation, enhancing efficiency, and providing a reliable backup. For Heathrow, a tailored CHP system could ensure operational continuity during grid failures while supporting sustainability goals. Beyond the airport, deploying CHP in surrounding areas could bolster community resilience, reducing the cascading impacts seen in this incident. While not a panacea, CHP merits serious consideration as part of a broader strategy to rethink energy infrastructure in the wake of such a disruptive event.
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- Written by: J C Burke
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...Equally applies to wind, hydro as well
From the US they have noticed the problems with Industrial scale Renewables, the Grid and Instability.
"As the U.S. begins a major push to become the leading player in the global solar revolution, the topic of sprawling solar farms built away from communities vs. small and medium scale solar arrays utilising rooftops and smaller parcels of already developed or degraded land is becoming an increasingly important issue."
"Small and medium scale solar power has the potential to become the Internet of distributed electricity generation – a network resilient to a single point of failure; whether caused by natural disasters or attack by hostile parties."
But this aspect only scratches the surface – decentralised solar {as well as Wind and Hydro} power offers a multitude of other benefits over large scale plants;
- including avoiding “line loss” and heat losses from transformers, associated with remote generation,
- reduction in infrastructure investment {GRID}
- while offering major permanent job creation potential and
- avoiding damage to wildlife habitats, loss of farmlands.
Instead of appropriating undisturbed public lands or utilising productive agricultural land for solar power generation on a massive scale, better use can be made of the very much under-utilised sea of rooftops in our towns and cities. Furthermore, in the UK the brownfield sites, commercial buildings within ctown/city centres offers direct in-building benefits.