Energy Outlook - Whats Missing
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IEA World Energy Outlook 2025: Gap Analysis
What's Missing from the "World View" Through the Lens of Waste Reduction & McGuire's Systems Framework
Prepared: December 2025
Analysis Context: Based on previous discussions regarding energy efficiency, waste reduction strategies, and Peter McGuire's GAP identification philosophy
Executive Summary
The IEA's World Energy Outlook 2025, while comprehensive in its modelling of energy supply scenarios and technology deployment pathways, exhibits fundamental structural blind spots that would be immediately visible through Peter McGuire's gap identification framework. The document exemplifies what McGuire warned about: when your analytical structure is built around the wrong organizing principles, you create systematic blind spots that prevent you from seeing the most important opportunities.
Core Problem: The IEA framework is structured around:
- Supply-side solutions (generation capacity additions)
- Fuel substitution (renewable energy replacing fossil fuels)
- Carbon emissions accounting (CO2 as primary metric)
This structure systematically obscures:
- Demand-side waste reduction (capturing the 60%+ energy currently lost)
- Thermodynamic efficiency fundamentals (Tier 1 physical realities)
- Integrated systems thinking (CHP, district heating, industrial symbiosis)
Part 1: Peter McGuire's GAP Framework Applied to IEA
1.1 What is Gap Analysis?
Peter McGuire's pioneering work in the 1980s-1990s demonstrated that the structure of your analytical framework determines what you can see. His visual, multi-dimensional knowledge systems could identify "gaps" - missing connections, knowledge domains, or approaches that conventional linear frameworks systematically miss.
McGuire's Core Insight:
"Flawed analytical structures don't just produce incomplete answers - they prevent certain questions from being asked at all."
1.2 The IEA's Structural Framework
The IEA World Energy Outlook 2025 organizes its analysis around:
Primary Organizing Dimensions:
- Scenarios (Current Policies, Stated Policies, Net Zero Emissions)
- Fuel Types (Oil, Gas, Coal, Renewables, Nuclear)
- End-Use Sectors (Transport, Buildings, Industry)
- Geographic Regions (with emphasis on emerging markets)
- Technology Deployment (Solar, Wind, EVs, Heat Pumps, Hydrogen)
Primary Metrics:
- Carbon emissions (CO2 tons)
- Installed capacity (GW)
- Energy consumption by fuel type (EJ)
- Investment requirements ($)
- Temperature outcomes (°C above pre-industrial)
1.3 What This Structure Makes Invisible
This framework creates systematic blind spots for:
The Conservation of Energy
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Based on the NESO report released yesterday (26th November 2025 - hidden behind the Budget fiasco??) and the broader context, here's an analysis of its significance in relation to field closures and taxation: We asked "is it dogma driving policy?"
Preamble:
"We are all missing the fundamental point: We're wasting 40-60% of energy through inefficiency."
Our call for "Real Conservation of Energy" isn't just environmentally sound or economically sensible - given abiotic regeneration possibility and NESO's warnings, it's the only rational policy that doesn't gamble with energy security while potentially destroying a misunderstood renewable resource.
The NESO Report's Key Findings
NESO warns that UK gas availability is projected to fall by 78% by 2035 compared to current levels, dropping from 24.5 billion cubic metres this year to just 5.4 billion cubic metres by 2035. The report identifies emerging risks to gas supply security when testing against one-in-20-year peak demand scenarios for 2030/31 to 2035/36, particularly if the system loses major infrastructure or if decarbonization progress is slower than planned.
The Taxation Context
The timing of this warning is particularly significant given the government's recent tax changes. The Energy Profits Levy was increased from 35% to 38% effective November 1, 2024, bringing the total headline tax rate on upstream oil and gas to 78%, and was extended to March 2030. Critically, the 29% investment allowance was removed, though the decarbonization allowance remains.
The Connection Between Taxation and Declining Production
The industry argues there's a direct link between the tax regime and accelerating decline:
- No new exploration wells have been drilled in 2025, and domestic oil and gas production has fallen by 40% in the last five years and is on course to halve again by 2030
- Industry modeling shows that without fiscal reform, oil and gas production will fall by approximately 40% from 2025 levels within the next five years
- The Energy Profits Levy has resulted in an increase in decisions to cease production, leading to higher decommissioning costs in the short term
The Decommissioning Acceleration
Annual decommissioning expenditure in the UK Continental Shelf surpassed £2 billion for the first time in 2024, accounting for 15% of total oil and gas expenditure, with projections indicating this share may double and exceed 30% by the end of the decade. This represents a tipping point where companies are spending more on shutting down fields than developing new production.
Bio-Methane from Sewage Sludge
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Our Primary Focus is on the extraction of Bio-Methane, typically using Thermo-Hydrolysis for maximum yields. However, Sewage sludge in today's modern cities, contains a great many other pollutants - the bio-gases themselves are a combination of methane (CH4), Carbon Dioxide (CO2), Hydrogen Sulphide (H2S), Ammonia and other gases. But the Sewage Sludge aslo contains the "forever chemicals" now prevalent within the modern 'societies' flouro-carbons - which are very difficult to treat - but not impossible. The scourge of PFAS pollutants;
It was the raising of this issue with an invitation to speak at PFAS Treatment Summit 2026 in Orange County, California that prompted us to rethink this issue and to research alternatives to the 'usual' incineration methods. Indeed new research suggests - See below;
Thermal hydrolysis has limited effectiveness against PFAS in sewage sludge, and may actually worsen certain aspects of the problem. This was our standard approach;
What Happens During Thermal Hydrolysis
Thermal hydrolysis typically operates at 150-180°C and 6-8 bar pressure for 20-30 minutes. These conditions are far below what's needed to break PFAS's extremely strong carbon-fluorine bonds, which require temperatures exceeding 1000°C for complete destruction.
Effects on PFAS
Minimal destruction: The process doesn't destroy PFAS molecules. The C-F bond energy (~485 kJ/mol) is among the strongest in organic chemistry, making these compounds remarkably stable at thermal hydrolysis temperatures.
Potential transformation: Some longer-chain PFAS precursors may partially degrade into shorter-chain PFAS compounds, but this doesn't eliminate the contamination—it just changes its form.
The Complete Chronology - 1972-2025
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AI and myself have been having complex discussions since the beginning of 2023 (Chat GPT) - then onto Perpexity, DeepSeek, and now based upon GROK and Clause.ai I asked Claude.ai to catalogue my (and Sun Earth Energy's) approach to energy and efficiency right back to my degree days in 1972. This is Calude.ai's "testimony"!
THE COMPLETE CHRONOLOGY: 1972-2025 This is a validation of the education and experience over the last 53 years - and still the Governmenbt is getting policy WRONG!
53 Years of Principled Engineering Thinking
1972-1976: THE FOUNDATION - THERMODYNAMICS & BUILDING SCIENCE
Your Education: BSc Building (Thick Sandwich Course)
- Leeds Polytechnic (now Leeds Beckett University)
- Lanchester Polytechnic (now Coventry University), Coventry
What a "Thick Sandwich" Meant: A four-year undergraduate course involving a placement term or internship in industry, [mine was 18 months in total, in 6 and 9 month periods after the first year at university] Wikipedia - this meant extended real-world experience between academic years, providing practical grounding in building science.
The Educational Context (1972-1976):
- Polytechnics focused on applied science and engineering education, with professional degrees rigorously validated by various professional institutions Wikipedia
- The CNAA (Council for National Academic Awards) validated polytechnic degrees from 1965-1992, with subject boards from universities ensuring strict scrutiny Explained
- Lanchester Polytechnic was formed in 1970 from the amalgamation of Lanchester College of Technology, College of Art, and Rugby College of Engineering Technology Wikipedia
Your Core Learning (1972-73): THERMODYNAMICS and heat flows through building fabrics
Why This Mattered: This was the critical period when you learned the fundamental laws that would guide your entire career:
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