Copper Supply Issues
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- Written by: John Burke questions AI regarding Copper Supply
- Hits: 139
QUESTION:
Given the ‘dash’ to electrify to the UK and European governments - today (30th October 2025) we heard at the FT Energy Transition Seminar - from ABB (Per Erik Holsten); there are Copper supply side problems meaning that ABB transformers have a 5 year lead time! What impact on a practical level will this have?
This is a significant bottleneck that will have cascading practical impacts across the energy transition. Let me break down the key consequences:
Immediate Infrastructure Impacts
- Grid Connection Delays: New renewable projects (solar farms, wind farms, battery storage) will face 5+ year waits just for transformer delivery before they can connect to the grid. This effectively pushes project completion dates well beyond planning timelines.
- EV Charging Infrastructure: Rapid charging hubs require substantial transformer capacity. Fleet electrification plans for logistics companies and public transport will hit delays, as will workplace and destination charging buildouts.
- Industrial Electrification: Factories switching from gas to electric heating, or installing electric arc furnaces, need transformer upgrades. This 5-year wait directly slows manufacturing decarbonization.
Economic Consequences
- Stranded Investment: Renewable developers may have sites ready, planning permission secured, and capital raised - but projects sit incomplete earning nothing while waiting for transformers. This ties up capital and increases financing costs.
- Cost Inflation: Scarcity will drive transformer prices higher. Projects budgeted 2-3 years ago may face 30-50% cost overruns on electrical infrastructure.
- Competitive Distortions: Companies who ordered transformers earlier gain massive first-mover advantages. Late movers face years of competitive disadvantage.
Subsidies vs Efficiency
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- Written by: J C Burke
- Hits: 233
The Efficiency Alternative:
Why Decentralized Energy Systems Beat the Renewable Subsidy Race
A Pre-Summit Analysis for the FT Energy Transition Summit 2025 - 29th and 30th October 2025
By Sun Earth Energy Ltd
As the Financial Times Energy Transition Summit convenes this coming week, CEOs, policymakers, and—critically—US investors will gather to discuss the "path to net zero." They'll hear familiar themes: massive renewable deployment, gigawatt-scale solar farms, offshore wind expansion, and the billions in subsidies needed to make it all "competitive."
But what if that entire framework is thermodynamically backwards?
The Uncomfortable Truth About Current Policy
At this year's FT Hydrogen Summit, a senior DESNZ official made a remarkable admission: the UK government's strategy involves deliberately making natural gas expensive to make alternatives like hydrogen appear "competitive."
This isn't market economics. This is industrial policy disguised as environmental necessity.
The same mechanism drives renewable energy policy:
- Add £65/MWh carbon pricing to gas generation
- Apply windfall taxes to North Sea production
- Provide 25% capital grants for solar/wind
- Guarantee prices through Contracts for Difference
- Socialize grid connection and balancing costs
Then declare renewables "cheaper than fossil fuels."
The Thermodynamic Case No One Makes
Heat Network Regulation
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- Written by: J C Burke
- Hits: 180
Ofgem Heat Networks Regulation: Protecting Consumers or Stifling Innovation?
An Analysis of the Fair Pricing Protection Guidance Consultation: The Promise and the Problem
Heat networks represent one of the most thermodynamically sensible solutions to reducing energy waste in the UK. By capturing waste heat from power generation, industrial processes, and data centres that would otherwise be discarded, they offer genuine efficiency gains regardless of carbon accounting metrics.
Yet Ofgem's latest consultation on heat networks regulation reveals a troubling misalignment between stated objectives and likely outcomes. While claiming to support market growth, the framework may actually entrench exactly the barriers preventing heat networks from reaching their full potential.
The Regulatory Paradox
The consultation framework attempts to balance three objectives:
- Protecting captive consumers
- Supporting sector investment
- Meeting net zero targets
But these goals pull in fundamentally different directions, and the draft guidance reveals which objective takes priority.
Missing Link in Local Energy Systems
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- Written by: Claude (AI) as directed by John Burke
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Iron-Salt Batteries: The Missing Link in Local Energy Systems
Upgrading CHP Infrastructure for True Energy Independence
The UK's energy strategy has taken a perplexing turn. Despite proven examples of efficient local energy systems like Islington's Bunhill Heat Network and Southampton's geothermal-CHP evolution, policy continues to favour centralized mega-projects that burden consumers while benefiting developers. However, emerging iron-salt battery technology from Germany offers a pathway to complete the distributed energy puzzle that has been decades in the making.
The Distributed Energy Vision
Local Combined Heat and Power (CHP) systems represent energy efficiency at its most practical. By generating electricity where it's needed and capturing waste heat for productive use, CHP eliminates the 60-70% energy losses typical of centralized power generation and transmission. The Bunhill Heat Network exemplifies this approach, combining CHP with waste heat recovery from London Underground ventilation systems to create a truly integrated local energy ecosystem.
Southampton's evolution from geothermal heating to comprehensive CHP district systems demonstrates how local energy infrastructure develops organically, building on existing assets rather than requiring massive upfront investments in entirely new systems.
The Storage Gap
Despite their efficiency advantages, local CHP systems have traditionally lacked one crucial component: long-duration energy storage. While CHP provides reliable baseload power, the integration of local renewables - rooftop solar, small wind systems - creates variable generation that needs to be balanced over extended periods.
Lithium batteries, with their fire risks, degradation issues, and 8-10 year lifespans, are poorly suited to the multi-decade service life expected from CHP infrastructure. What local energy systems need is storage technology that matches the durability, safety, and economic profile of the CHP plants themselves.
Enter Iron-Salt Battery Technology
German companies like VoltStorage and research institutions including Fraunhofer UMSICHT have developed iron-salt battery systems that fill this exact gap. These systems use abundant materials - iron, salt, and water - to provide Long Duration Energy Storage (LDES) with remarkable characteristics:
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